In an update today, seen by Bloomberg, London Heathrow Airport (LHR) announced that it expects to see a return to 65% of pre-pandemic passenger traffic in 2022. This represents 52.8 million passengers, driven primarily by easing travel restrictions and high booking demand for this summer.
Despite this jump, which is more than the last two years combined, Heathrow is nowhere near its break-even profit point of 65 million passengers. This means another year of losses for the airport, but it did manage to turn a positive EBITDA in the first quarter of 2022, a good sign for the future.
One of the biggest problems plaguing Heathrow is a staffing shortage. The airport is pushing for a record fee of £42 ($53.4) per passenger flying from there to tackle this. This goes far behind the Civil Aviation Authority's (CAA) current cap of £30.19 ($38.9) and the proposed increase to £34.4 ($43.75).
The move is being resisted by airlines, which do not want to charge extra on UK routes that already carry the heavy Air Passenger Duty. However, Holland-Kaye warns that without higher fees, the current staffing shortage will only be exacerbated as the airport expands with less staff.
Heathrow's latest guidance paints a choppy picture for 2022 for airlines and airports. While passengers are undoubtedly coming back this summer, bringing back near pre-pandemic levels of capacity, COVID remains a threat to this recovery. Another wave of cases could set back progress months, while high fuel prices could drive some away from flying.
Economic troubles and the war in Ukraine only further hurt the industry as its impact became clear over the weekend. Things could go either way this year, and everyone is holding their breath.